Gut Check
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21 (9 on the archive and 12 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 7
Defender wins (Italian): 14
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2026-01-07 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2026-01-07 | | Lost |
| 991 | 1122 | 32% | 2025-12-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2018-08-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 940 | 59% | 2011-07-14 | | Won |
| 695 | 1109 | 8% | 2009-10-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2009-10-10 | | Lost |
| 1054 | 1141 | 38% | 2005-10-06 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Won |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 978.1 vs 1045.8 has a 40.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).