Gut Check
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 9
Attacker wins (Canadian): 3
Defender wins (Italian): 6
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1041 | 1062 | 47% | 2026-01-07 | Lost |
| 993 | 976 | 52% | 2026-01-07 | Lost |
| 950 | 1075 | 33% | 2025-12-18 | Lost |
| 916 | 1065 | 30% | 2018-08-18 | Lost |
| 825 | 891 | 41% | 2011-07-14 | Won |
| 694 | 1099 | 9% | 2009-10-17 | Won |
| 865 | 1015 | 30% | 2009-10-10 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1140 | 38% | 2005-10-06 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1096 | 48% | | Won |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 935.8 vs 1046.6 has a 34.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).