Gut Check
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 9
Attacker wins (Canadian): 3
Defender wins (Italian): 6
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1060 | 1060 | 50% | 2026-01-07 | Lost |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2026-01-07 | Lost |
| 977 | 1038 | 41% | 2025-12-18 | Lost |
| 914 | 1097 | 26% | 2018-08-18 | Lost |
| 826 | 885 | 42% | 2011-07-14 | Won |
| 694 | 1052 | 11% | 2009-10-17 | Won |
| 865 | 1015 | 30% | 2009-10-10 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1140 | 38% | 2005-10-06 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1091 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 939.8 vs 1039.4 has a 36.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).