The Hornet of Cloville
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21
Attacker wins (American): 8
Defender wins (German): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 979 | 864 | 66% | 2022-03-26 | Won |
| 1236 | 995 | 80% | 2018-12-30 | Won |
| 957 | 1129 | 27% | 2015-05-10 | Lost |
| 952 | 1136 | 26% | 2014-03-05 | Lost |
| 996 | 1216 | 22% | 2012-10-07 | Lost |
| 1204 | 714 | 94% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 930 | 1011 | 39% | 2010-01-28 | Won |
| 984 | 1028 | 44% | 2010-01-24 | Won |
| 1022 | 798 | 78% | 2007-03-05 | Won |
| 1036 | 978 | 58% | 2007-01-16 | Lost |
| 1032 | 952 | 61% | 2006-09-13 | Won |
| 913 | 979 | 41% | 2004-12-27 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1085 | 59% | 2004-12-21 | Lost |
| 931 | 1210 | 17% | 2004-10-24 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1125 | 39% | 2004-01-03 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1157 | 37% | 2000-08-01 | Won |
| 1157 | 940 | 78% | 2000-06-24 | Lost |
| 798 | 1103 | 15% | 1998-09-20 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1205 | 53% | 1997-04-01 | Won |
| 1204 | 714 | 94% | 1997-01-14 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1002 | 68% | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1045.1 vs 1016.2 has a 54.14% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).