The Hornet of Cloville
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 189 (21 on the archive and 168 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 73
Defender wins (German): 116
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 959 | 1174 | 22% | 2022-03-26 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1120 | 64% | 2018-12-30 | | Won |
| 927 | 1090 | 28% | 2015-05-10 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1126 | 27% | 2014-03-05 | | Lost |
| 997 | 1263 | 18% | 2012-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 767 | 90% | 2011-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 896 | 65% | 2010-01-28 | | Won |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2010-01-24 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1080 | 43% | 2007-03-05 | | Won |
| 1035 | 969 | 59% | 2007-01-16 | | Lost |
| 1034 | 952 | 62% | 2006-09-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1035 | 45% | 2004-12-27 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2004-12-21 | | Lost |
| 1209 | 1000 | 77% | 2004-10-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1120 | 33% | 2004-01-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2000-08-01 | | Won |
| 1159 | 940 | 78% | 2000-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1073 | 51% | 1998-09-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1134 | 32% | 1997-04-01 | | Won |
| 1141 | 767 | 90% | 1997-01-14 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1018 | 60% | | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1053 vs 1026.7 has a 53.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).