The Hornet of Cloville
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 20
Attacker wins (American): 8
Defender wins (German): 12
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 976 | 53% | 2022-03-26 | Won |
| 1311 | 1074 | 80% | 2018-12-30 | Won |
| 877 | 1100 | 22% | 2015-05-10 | Lost |
| 952 | 1125 | 27% | 2014-03-05 | Lost |
| 1140 | 707 | 92% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1199 | 920 | 83% | 2010-01-28 | Won |
| 1011 | 1029 | 47% | 2010-01-24 | Won |
| 1037 | 1014 | 53% | 2007-03-05 | Won |
| 1029 | 966 | 59% | 2007-01-16 | Lost |
| 1025 | 952 | 60% | 2006-09-13 | Won |
| 914 | 1048 | 32% | 2004-12-27 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1086 | 54% | 2004-12-21 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1150 | 56% | 2004-10-24 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1107 | 41% | 2004-01-03 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1132 | 40% | 2000-08-01 | Won |
| 1219 | 940 | 83% | 2000-06-24 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1090 | 39% | 1998-09-20 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1104 | 56% | 1997-04-01 | Won |
| 1140 | 707 | 92% | 1997-01-14 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1030 | 57% | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1075.2 vs 1012.9 has a 58.88% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).