The Hornet of Cloville
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 20
Attacker wins (American): 8
Defender wins (German): 12
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1036 | 947 | 63% | 2022-03-26 | Won |
| 1333 | 1074 | 82% | 2018-12-30 | Won |
| 922 | 1070 | 30% | 2015-05-10 | Lost |
| 952 | 1125 | 27% | 2014-03-05 | Lost |
| 1152 | 713 | 93% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 954 | 919 | 55% | 2010-01-28 | Won |
| 1011 | 1029 | 47% | 2010-01-24 | Won |
| 1058 | 1065 | 49% | 2007-03-05 | Won |
| 1035 | 969 | 59% | 2007-01-16 | Lost |
| 1025 | 952 | 60% | 2006-09-13 | Won |
| 914 | 1063 | 30% | 2004-12-27 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1085 | 55% | 2004-12-21 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1150 | 49% | 2004-10-24 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1106 | 41% | 2004-01-03 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1123 | 42% | 2000-08-01 | Won |
| 1189 | 940 | 81% | 2000-06-24 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1091 | 46% | 1998-09-20 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1127 | 49% | 1997-04-01 | Won |
| 1152 | 713 | 93% | 1997-01-14 | Lost |
| 1103 | 1030 | 60% | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1069.5 vs 1014.6 has a 57.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).