Ripples on the Pond
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 28
Attacker wins (American): 16
Defender wins (German): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 963 | 964 | 50% | 2025-08-16 | Won |
| 1277 | 764 | 95% | 2025-01-29 | Won |
| 764 | 990 | 21% | 2024-12-15 | Won |
| 764 | 1023 | 18% | 2024-08-30 | Lost |
| 1158 | 764 | 91% | 2023-09-25 | Won |
| 1087 | 1056 | 54% | 2022-11-29 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1009 | 53% | 2022-11-23 | Won |
| 764 | 928 | 28% | 2022-06-15 | Won |
| 982 | 983 | 50% | 2022-03-08 | Lost |
| 1427 | 925 | 95% | 2021-04-27 | Won |
| 925 | 1141 | 22% | 2021-04-13 | Lost |
| 1431 | 1427 | 51% | 2021-04-09 | Won |
| 982 | 964 | 53% | 2021-04-06 | Won |
| 969 | 1016 | 43% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1087 | 59% | 2020-09-29 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2020-07-07 | Lost |
| 1163 | 992 | 73% | 2020-06-07 | Won |
| 1138 | 1127 | 52% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 959 | 1032 | 40% | 2020-02-16 | Lost |
| 989 | 1007 | 47% | 2018-03-01 | Won |
| 1022 | 764 | 82% | 2017-12-21 | Lost |
| 878 | 901 | 47% | 2016-11-21 | Lost |
| 878 | 764 | 66% | 2016-09-05 | Tied |
| 1033 | 1096 | 41% | 2011-07-13 | Tied |
| 886 | 1003 | 34% | 2010-01-01 | Won |
| 1039 | 1045 | 49% | 2009-07-14 | Lost |
| 871 | 987 | 34% | 2008-10-09 | Won |
| 1050 | 1020 | 54% | 2008-09-26 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1020.3 vs 991.7 has a 54.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).