Der Letzte Geburtstag
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 56 (13 on the archive and 43 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 20
Defender wins (German): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1028 | 971 | 58% | 2025-06-26 | Lost |
| 1052 | 940 | 66% | 2023-04-24 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1025 | 74% | 2019-12-28 | Won |
| 959 | 1282 | 13% | 2016-12-30 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1177 | 46% | 2010-10-07 | Lost |
| 910 | 1107 | 24% | 2010-10-06 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1035 | 46% | 2010-05-16 | Won |
| 1148 | 1340 | 25% | 2010-05-02 | Lost |
| 1093 | 1093 | 50% | 2009-12-30 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1244 | 22% | 2009-10-29 | Lost |
| 1244 | 1020 | 78% | 2009-10-29 | Won |
| 1020 | 973 | 57% | 2009-10-23 | Won |
| 1086 | 1080 | 51% | 2009-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1071.2 vs 1099 has a 46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).