Guns for St. Barbara
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 15
Attacker wins (American): 11
Defender wins (German): 3
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1149 | 1219 | 40% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 907 | 1219 | 14% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1219 | 28% | 2019-11-15 | Won |
| 944 | 944 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Lost |
| 1025 | 986 | 56% | 2018-02-10 | Won |
| 898 | 1158 | 18% | 2015-02-02 | Won |
| 1005 | 1038 | 45% | 2015-01-24 | Won |
| 999 | 1017 | 47% | 2014-06-15 | Tied |
| 1054 | 966 | 62% | 2014-05-15 | Won |
| 919 | 976 | 42% | 2012-12-28 | Won |
| 1067 | 1082 | 48% | 2012-04-09 | Won |
| 938 | 896 | 56% | 2011-07-04 | Won |
| 1110 | 970 | 69% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 1038 | 1141 | 36% | 2011-03-19 | Lost |
| 940 | 1121 | 26% | 2011-01-14 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1003.4 vs 1063.5 has a 41.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).