Contested Settlement
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 76 (30 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 34
Defender wins (Slovakian): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 2026-01-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 986 | 52% | 2025-02-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1032 | 45% | 2024-06-10 | | Lost |
| 954 | 1431 | 6% | 2022-08-06 | | Lost |
| 1049 | 1431 | 10% | 2021-12-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1174 | 27% | 2021-10-11 | | Won |
| 889 | 1000 | 35% | 2021-09-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1004 | 49% | 2021-08-11 | | Lost |
| 944 | 1000 | 42% | 2020-12-30 | | Won |
| 1006 | 1012 | 49% | 2020-12-06 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2020-11-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1028 | 46% | 2020-10-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1431 | 8% | 2020-08-25 | | Lost |
| 1052 | 1000 | 57% | 2020-02-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1431 | 8% | 2020-01-31 | | Lost |
| 1431 | 1000 | 92% | 2020-01-25 | | Won |
| 889 | 1000 | 35% | 2019-07-04 | | Lost |
| 1007 | 1000 | 51% | 2018-06-15 | | Won |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2018-04-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 950 | 57% | 2017-12-21 | | Won |
| 889 | 1000 | 35% | 2017-11-24 | | Lost |
| 1017 | 1021 | 49% | 2016-07-14 | | Won |
| 959 | 1431 | 6% | 2013-04-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2012-09-22 | | Lost |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2012-03-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 999 | 50% | 2012-01-15 | | Won |
| 1028 | 968 | 59% | 2011-08-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1215 | 22% | 2011-06-25 | | Lost |
| 996 | 1000 | 49% | 2011-06-19 | | Won |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2011-06-08 | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1012.5 vs 1084.2 has a 39.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).