The Bet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 26 (10 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 11
Defender wins (Norwegian): 15
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 967 | 1027 | 41% | 2026-04-01 | Won |
| 1114 | 1200 | 38% | 2021-04-15 | Won |
| 931 | 1218 | 16% | 2020-01-12 | Lost |
| 1005 | 983 | 53% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1146 | 890 | 81% | 2015-06-21 | Won |
| 905 | 1117 | 23% | 2015-05-16 | Lost |
| 983 | 1043 | 41% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 980 | 1038 | 42% | 2014-02-24 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1003 | 53% | 2014-02-08 | Won |
| 983 | 843 | 69% | 2013-12-06 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1003.7 vs 1036.2 has a 45.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).