The Bet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 26 (10 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 17
Defender wins (Norwegian): 9
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2026-04-01 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1139 | 49% | 2021-04-15 | | Won |
| 931 | 1218 | 16% | 2020-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1013 | 1063 | 43% | 2015-11-07 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 891 | 80% | 2015-06-21 | | Won |
| 906 | 1147 | 20% | 2015-05-16 | | Lost |
| 962 | 1057 | 37% | 2015-05-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1033 | 45% | 2014-02-24 | | Lost |
| 1023 | 1003 | 53% | 2014-02-08 | | Won |
| 1063 | 829 | 79% | 2013-12-06 | | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1032.2 vs 1033.2 has a 49.86% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).