The Mubo Decision
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 125 (26 on the archive and 99 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 61
Defender wins (Japanese): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1181 | 961 | 78% | 2023-09-14 | Lost |
| 932 | 921 | 52% | 2021-11-18 | Won |
| 914 | 1053 | 31% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 914 | 1053 | 31% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 1053 | 914 | 69% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1053 | 914 | 69% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1130 | 914 | 78% | 2021-03-26 | Won |
| 1268 | 1143 | 67% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1268 | 33% | 2021-01-25 | Won |
| 1208 | 1064 | 70% | 2020-08-21 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2019-03-06 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1152 | 30% | 2018-08-04 | Lost |
| 924 | 897 | 54% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1268 | 35% | 2016-03-27 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1004 | 64% | 2015-10-10 | Won |
| 1052 | 1060 | 49% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 839 | 998 | 29% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 1090 | 949 | 69% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 938 | 1268 | 13% | 2015-04-06 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1329 | 21% | 2015-02-22 | Won |
| 1036 | 1026 | 51% | 2015-02-06 | Won |
| 1176 | 1163 | 52% | 2015-01-07 | Won |
| 1301 | 1010 | 84% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 941 | 1052 | 35% | 2014-10-27 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1057 | 54% | 2014-10-06 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1064.5 vs 1060.8 has a 50.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).