The Mubo Decision
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 124 (26 on the archive and 98 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 61
Defender wins (Japanese): 63
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1219 | 910 | 86% | 2023-09-14 | Lost |
| 945 | 1019 | 40% | 2021-11-18 | Won |
| 940 | 1053 | 34% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 940 | 1053 | 34% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 1053 | 940 | 66% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1053 | 940 | 66% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1137 | 940 | 76% | 2021-03-26 | Won |
| 1032 | 1207 | 27% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1207 | 1032 | 73% | 2021-01-25 | Won |
| 1218 | 1082 | 69% | 2020-08-21 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1084 | 46% | 2019-03-06 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1141 | 32% | 2018-08-04 | Lost |
| 924 | 896 | 54% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1032 | 67% | 2016-03-27 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1003 | 65% | 2015-10-10 | Won |
| 1103 | 919 | 74% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 841 | 966 | 33% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 1061 | 1058 | 50% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 938 | 1209 | 17% | 2015-04-06 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1316 | 21% | 2015-02-22 | Won |
| 1014 | 1026 | 48% | 2015-02-06 | Won |
| 1175 | 1147 | 54% | 2015-01-07 | Won |
| 921 | 1010 | 37% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 940 | 1061 | 33% | 2014-10-27 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1058 | 55% | 2014-10-06 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1047.3 vs 1044.1 has a 50.46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).