A Grain of Sand
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 37 (11 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 19
Defender wins (German): 18
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1010 | 1122 | 34% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 1014 | 918 | 63% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1081 | 56% | 2020-11-07 | Lost |
| 1009 | 748 | 82% | 2020-06-18 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1210 | 42% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1128 | 1145 | 48% | 2018-10-04 | Lost |
| 1157 | 967 | 75% | 2018-04-05 | Won |
| 967 | 1157 | 25% | 2018-04-05 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1084 | 42% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1189 | 748 | 93% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1109 | 76% | 2018-01-03 | Lost |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1099.1 vs 1026.3 has a 60.33% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).