A Grain of Sand
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 39 (13 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 20
Defender wins (German): 19
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1010 | 1107 | 36% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 1014 | 920 | 63% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1104 | 52% | 2020-11-07 | Lost |
| 1016 | 764 | 81% | 2020-06-18 | Lost |
| 712 | 1152 | 7% | 2019-01-09 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1225 | 36% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1064 | 1149 | 38% | 2018-10-04 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1152 | 46% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1127 | 970 | 71% | 2018-04-05 | Won |
| 970 | 1127 | 29% | 2018-04-05 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1082 | 42% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1158 | 764 | 91% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 1329 | 1096 | 79% | 2018-01-03 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1061.2 vs 1047.1 has a 52.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).