A Grain of Sand
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 39 (13 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 20
Defender wins (German): 19
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1010 | 1102 | 37% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 1071 | 919 | 71% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1105 | 60% | 2020-11-07 | Lost |
| 980 | 929 | 57% | 2020-06-18 | Lost |
| 731 | 1140 | 9% | 2019-01-09 | Lost |
| 1164 | 1226 | 41% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1059 | 1126 | 40% | 2018-10-04 | Lost |
| 1164 | 1140 | 53% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1164 | 971 | 75% | 2018-04-05 | Won |
| 971 | 1164 | 25% | 2018-04-05 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1082 | 42% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1184 | 929 | 81% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 1340 | 1090 | 81% | 2018-01-03 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1079.9 vs 1071 has a 51.28% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).