A Grain of Sand
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 39 (13 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 20
Defender wins (German): 19
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1010 | 1122 | 34% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 1014 | 918 | 63% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1104 | 1100 | 51% | 2020-11-07 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1112 | 37% | 2020-06-18 | Lost |
| 707 | 1140 | 8% | 2019-01-09 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1225 | 40% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1132 | 1154 | 47% | 2018-10-04 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1140 | 52% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1151 | 971 | 74% | 2018-04-05 | Won |
| 971 | 1151 | 26% | 2018-04-05 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1082 | 42% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1189 | 1112 | 61% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 1311 | 1110 | 76% | 2018-01-03 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1072.4 vs 1102.8 has a 45.63% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).