The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 83 (21 on the archive and 62 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 41
Defender wins (American): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1205 | 944 | 82% | 2026-07-05 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1011 | 56% | 2025-01-24 | | Won |
| 1347 | 1102 | 80% | 2024-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1152 | 1000 | 71% | 2024-03-02 | | Won |
| 1187 | 734 | 93% | 2020-06-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1103 | 36% | 2020-03-12 | | Won |
| 1005 | 992 | 52% | 2019-07-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1051 | 43% | 2019-05-30 | | Lost |
| 1099 | 987 | 66% | 2019-01-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2018-11-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2018-10-06 | | Won |
| 1123 | 970 | 71% | 2018-08-22 | | Won |
| 951 | 1241 | 16% | 2018-06-30 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2018-06-29 | | Lost |
| 1009 | 864 | 70% | 2018-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1060 | 41% | 2018-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1099 | 36% | 2018-03-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1120 | 33% | 2018-03-24 | | Won |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2018-02-24 | | Lost |
| 1069 | 937 | 68% | 2018-01-12 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2018-01-12 | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1078.7 vs 1013.6 has a 59.26% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).