The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 80 (20 on the archive and 60 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 40
Defender wins (American): 40
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1054 | 1002 | 57% | 2025-01-24 | Won |
| 1342 | 1189 | 71% | 2024-10-08 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1135 | 45% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1206 | 1100 | 65% | 2023-05-06 | Lost |
| 1254 | 733 | 95% | 2020-06-02 | Won |
| 1091 | 1106 | 48% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
| 1005 | 915 | 63% | 2019-07-13 | Lost |
| 1147 | 1007 | 69% | 2019-05-30 | Lost |
| 1148 | 930 | 78% | 2019-01-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Won |
| 1140 | 1109 | 54% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1154 | 970 | 74% | 2018-08-22 | Won |
| 951 | 1216 | 18% | 2018-06-30 | Lost |
| 1023 | 863 | 72% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1010 | 65% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 824 | 1148 | 13% | 2018-03-28 | Lost |
| 990 | 1122 | 32% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 998 | 1028 | 46% | 2018-02-24 | Lost |
| 1073 | 918 | 71% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
| 944 | 947 | 50% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1082.5 vs 1026.8 has a 57.94% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).