The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 84 (21 on the archive and 63 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 41
Defender wins (American): 43
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1194 | 945 | 81% | 2026-07-05 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1011 | 56% | 2025-01-24 | | Won |
| 1348 | 1152 | 76% | 2024-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1149 | 1000 | 70% | 2024-03-02 | | Won |
| 1284 | 728 | 96% | 2020-06-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1103 | 36% | 2020-03-12 | | Won |
| 1006 | 992 | 52% | 2019-07-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1077 | 39% | 2019-05-30 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 986 | 70% | 2019-01-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2018-11-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 987 | 52% | 2018-10-06 | | Won |
| 1146 | 970 | 73% | 2018-08-22 | | Won |
| 952 | 1138 | 26% | 2018-06-30 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2018-06-29 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 864 | 70% | 2018-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1059 | 42% | 2018-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1134 | 32% | 2018-03-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1120 | 33% | 2018-03-24 | | Won |
| 1119 | 1075 | 56% | 2018-02-24 | | Lost |
| 1062 | 972 | 63% | 2018-01-12 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2018-01-12 | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1084.9 vs 1019.1 has a 59.35% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).