The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 78 (19 on the archive and 59 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 39
Defender wins (American): 39
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1273 | 1046 | 79% | 2024-10-08 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1137 | 46% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1148 | 917 | 79% | 2023-05-06 | Lost |
| 1181 | 765 | 92% | 2020-06-02 | Won |
| 1093 | 1091 | 50% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
| 1005 | 853 | 71% | 2019-07-13 | Lost |
| 1150 | 946 | 76% | 2019-05-30 | Lost |
| 1114 | 953 | 72% | 2019-01-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Won |
| 1184 | 1100 | 62% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1140 | 968 | 73% | 2018-08-22 | Won |
| 952 | 1287 | 13% | 2018-06-30 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1063 | 58% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 1001 | 864 | 69% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 869 | 1114 | 20% | 2018-03-28 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1100 | 42% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 965 | 1044 | 39% | 2018-02-24 | Lost |
| 1031 | 955 | 61% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
| 921 | 948 | 46% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1073 vs 1012.6 has a 58.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).