Heart of Darkness
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (13 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (South African): 13
Defender wins (Italian): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1015 | 904 | 65% | 2024-10-14 | Won |
| 1020 | 995 | 54% | 2022-07-22 | Lost |
| 961 | 1216 | 19% | 2020-06-19 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1066 | 42% | 2020-06-01 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1103 | 46% | 2019-08-24 | Lost |
| 968 | 1252 | 16% | 2019-05-11 | Lost |
| 1004 | 982 | 53% | 2019-03-20 | Won |
| 1283 | 1025 | 82% | 2019-03-12 | Won |
| 1248 | 991 | 81% | 2019-02-18 | Won |
| 1144 | 991 | 71% | 2019-02-08 | Lost |
| 930 | 1079 | 30% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 1008 | 1000 | 51% | 2019-01-18 | Won |
| 1198 | 1021 | 73% | 2018-12-18 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1066.2 vs 1048.1 has a 52.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).