Heart of Darkness
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31 (15 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (South African): 14
Defender wins (Italian): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2026-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2025-08-20 | | Won |
| 1015 | 943 | 60% | 2024-10-14 | | Won |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2022-07-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1216 | 22% | 2020-06-19 | | Lost |
| 1009 | 1077 | 40% | 2020-06-01 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2019-08-24 | | Lost |
| 969 | 1219 | 19% | 2019-05-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2019-03-20 | | Won |
| 1263 | 1024 | 80% | 2019-03-12 | | Won |
| 1192 | 1000 | 75% | 2019-02-18 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2019-02-08 | | Lost |
| 907 | 1075 | 28% | 2019-01-20 | | Won |
| 1009 | 966 | 56% | 2019-01-18 | | Won |
| 1229 | 1021 | 77% | 2018-12-18 | | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1064.3 vs 1031.7 has a 54.67% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).