Long Day of Confusion
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 26 (15 on the archive and 11 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 11
Defender wins (German (SS)): 15
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 983 | 912 | 60% | 2023-09-03 | Won |
| 1189 | 1245 | 42% | 2023-06-23 | Won |
| 1130 | 1130 | 50% | 2023-05-21 | Lost |
| 981 | 990 | 49% | 2023-01-15 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1030 | 52% | 2023-01-15 | Lost |
| 990 | 983 | 51% | 2023-01-07 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2022-11-23 | Won |
| 1072 | 1083 | 48% | 2022-11-17 | Won |
| 1091 | 1018 | 60% | 2022-03-23 | Lost |
| 953 | 1242 | 16% | 2022-01-01 | Lost |
| 1206 | 953 | 81% | 2021-10-08 | Lost |
| 980 | 989 | 49% | 2021-09-11 | Won |
| 1242 | 1144 | 64% | 2020-05-01 | Won |
| 1072 | 1082 | 49% | 2019-11-24 | Lost |
| 953 | 1113 | 28% | 2019-11-17 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1070.7 vs 1072.4 has a 49.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).