Loosening the Noose
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 37 (11 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 17
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2026-03-22 | | Won |
| 1070 | 1036 | 55% | 2025-12-22 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2025-03-18 | | Won |
| 1044 | 1063 | 47% | 2025-03-05 | | Won |
| 1170 | 1258 | 38% | 2024-09-01 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 1263 | 26% | 2023-10-14 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 967 | 66% | 2023-07-06 | | Won |
| 851 | 1042 | 25% | 2022-10-22 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 969 | 59% | 2022-08-27 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2022-07-06 | | Lost |
| 977 | 780 | 76% | 2022-03-25 | | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1045.3 vs 1054.3 has a 48.71% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).