Loosening the Noose
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 33 (11 on the archive and 22 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 15
Defender wins (German): 18
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1040 | 1056 | 48% | 2026-03-22 | Won |
| 973 | 1003 | 46% | 2025-12-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 1021 | 45% | 2025-03-18 | Won |
| 1030 | 1039 | 49% | 2025-03-05 | Won |
| 1245 | 1220 | 54% | 2024-09-01 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1263 | 26% | 2023-10-14 | Lost |
| 1080 | 910 | 73% | 2023-07-06 | Won |
| 851 | 1042 | 25% | 2022-10-22 | Lost |
| 1021 | 969 | 57% | 2022-08-27 | Won |
| 1151 | 1239 | 38% | 2022-07-06 | Lost |
| 997 | 780 | 78% | 2022-03-25 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1041.3 vs 1049.3 has a 48.85% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).