Goats to Lure the Tiger
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 20 (7 on the archive and 13 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German/Italian): 12
Defender wins (Free French): 8
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2026-03-22 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1263 | 28% | 2025-06-27 | | Won |
| 699 | 1031 | 13% | 2025-06-13 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1050 | 48% | 2024-04-21 | | Lost |
| 1100 | 1000 | 64% | 2023-04-03 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 966 | 59% | 2023-03-19 | | Won |
| 1192 | 1000 | 75% | 2023-01-31 | | Won |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1022.6 vs 1036.1 has a 48.05% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).