Goats to Lure the Tiger
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 19 (7 on the archive and 12 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German/Italian): 12
Defender wins (Free French): 7
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 939 | 939 | 50% | 2026-03-22 | Won |
| 1077 | 1263 | 26% | 2025-06-27 | Won |
| 706 | 1031 | 13% | 2025-06-13 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1050 | 48% | 2024-04-21 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1142 | 48% | 2023-04-03 | Lost |
| 1031 | 956 | 61% | 2023-03-19 | Won |
| 1174 | 1045 | 68% | 2023-01-31 | Won |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1013.1 vs 1060.9 has a 43.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).