First Crisis at Army Group North
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21
Attacker wins (Russian): 8
Defender wins (German): 13
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1094 | 1145 | 43% | 2022-11-22 | Won |
| 1007 | 974 | 55% | 2022-10-26 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1190 | 26% | 2022-09-09 | Lost |
| 962 | 1160 | 24% | 2022-05-10 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1181 | 27% | 2022-01-16 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1175 | 50% | 2021-05-26 | Won |
| 1030 | 1011 | 53% | 2021-05-05 | Won |
| 955 | 1011 | 42% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1076 | 932 | 70% | 2020-05-20 | Lost |
| 944 | 1059 | 34% | 2019-03-01 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1010 | 78% | 2015-04-07 | Won |
| 1016 | 1109 | 37% | 2015-02-08 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1190 | 35% | 2014-12-29 | Lost |
| 999 | 1017 | 47% | 2014-07-15 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1127 | 44% | 2014-07-02 | Won |
| 1022 | 977 | 56% | 2013-02-24 | Lost |
| 900 | 1160 | 18% | 2013-02-13 | Lost |
| 944 | 1078 | 32% | 2012-05-15 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1186 | 30% | 2010-04-25 | Won |
| 1047 | 1135 | 38% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 1078 | 905 | 73% | 2007-11-14 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1033.4 vs 1082.5 has a 42.99% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).