First Crisis at Army Group North
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 22
Attacker wins (Russian): 9
Defender wins (German): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 947 | 993 | 43% | 2025-08-22 | Won |
| 1096 | 1144 | 43% | 2022-11-22 | Won |
| 1023 | 987 | 55% | 2022-10-26 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1275 | 19% | 2022-09-09 | Lost |
| 979 | 1111 | 32% | 2022-05-10 | Lost |
| 947 | 1177 | 21% | 2022-01-16 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1176 | 50% | 2021-05-26 | Won |
| 1031 | 1012 | 53% | 2021-05-05 | Won |
| 946 | 947 | 50% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1076 | 940 | 69% | 2020-05-20 | Lost |
| 972 | 1014 | 44% | 2019-03-01 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1009 | 78% | 2015-04-07 | Won |
| 1038 | 1191 | 29% | 2015-02-08 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1275 | 25% | 2014-12-29 | Lost |
| 999 | 1017 | 47% | 2014-07-15 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1094 | 49% | 2014-07-02 | Won |
| 1060 | 977 | 62% | 2013-02-24 | Lost |
| 900 | 1111 | 23% | 2013-02-13 | Lost |
| 950 | 1097 | 30% | 2012-05-15 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1186 | 30% | 2010-04-25 | Won |
| 1064 | 1139 | 39% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 1097 | 904 | 75% | 2007-11-14 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1034.7 vs 1080.7 has a 43.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).