First Crisis at Army Group North
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 22
Attacker wins (Russian): 9
Defender wins (German): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 982 | 982 | 50% | 2025-08-22 | Won |
| 1108 | 1144 | 45% | 2022-11-22 | Won |
| 1037 | 987 | 57% | 2022-10-26 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1256 | 22% | 2022-09-09 | Lost |
| 979 | 1065 | 38% | 2022-05-10 | Lost |
| 982 | 1176 | 25% | 2022-01-16 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1175 | 50% | 2021-05-26 | Won |
| 1013 | 1029 | 48% | 2021-05-05 | Won |
| 949 | 982 | 45% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1076 | 960 | 66% | 2020-05-20 | Lost |
| 982 | 1018 | 45% | 2019-03-01 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1009 | 78% | 2015-04-07 | Won |
| 1038 | 1183 | 30% | 2015-02-08 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1256 | 27% | 2014-12-29 | Lost |
| 998 | 1016 | 47% | 2014-07-15 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1094 | 49% | 2014-07-02 | Won |
| 1055 | 977 | 61% | 2013-02-24 | Lost |
| 900 | 1065 | 28% | 2013-02-13 | Lost |
| 912 | 1106 | 25% | 2012-05-15 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1186 | 30% | 2010-04-25 | Won |
| 1111 | 1138 | 46% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 1106 | 904 | 76% | 2007-11-14 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1040 vs 1077.6 has a 44.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).