The Good Shepherd
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 19
Attacker wins (Canadian): 8
Defender wins (German): 10
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Canadian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1161 | 949 | 77% | 2023-04-09 | Won |
| 1185 | 1167 | 53% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1011 | 68% | 2023-04-03 | Won |
| 1193 | 1051 | 69% | 2023-03-11 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1205 | 32% | 2023-03-10 | Lost |
| 1182 | 1031 | 70% | 2023-03-05 | Won |
| 975 | 999 | 47% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1132 | 41% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1038 | 57% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 1019 | 965 | 58% | 2017-03-27 | Won |
| 1219 | 1214 | 51% | 2011-06-07 | Won |
| 999 | 1146 | 30% | 2010-12-04 | Lost |
| 1203 | 1080 | 67% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 994 | 1031 | 45% | 2006-05-07 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1162 | 36% | 2006-01-27 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1083 | 49% | 2003-10-01 | Won |
| 1141 | 777 | 89% | 2003-05-13 | Won |
| 777 | 1141 | 11% | 2003-03-12 | Won |
| 1078 | 1078 | 50% | | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1086 vs 1066.3 has a 52.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).