The Good Shepherd
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 19
Attacker wins (Canadian): 8
Defender wins (German): 10
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Canadian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1170 | 958 | 77% | 2023-04-09 | Won |
| 1185 | 1084 | 64% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1032 | 62% | 2023-04-03 | Won |
| 1185 | 1014 | 73% | 2023-03-11 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1164 | 37% | 2023-03-10 | Lost |
| 1275 | 1122 | 71% | 2023-03-05 | Won |
| 974 | 968 | 51% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1135 | 40% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1036 | 54% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 1030 | 885 | 70% | 2017-03-27 | Won |
| 1333 | 1213 | 67% | 2011-06-07 | Won |
| 968 | 1078 | 35% | 2010-12-04 | Lost |
| 1202 | 1089 | 66% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 1098 | 1122 | 47% | 2006-05-07 | Lost |
| 1203 | 1151 | 57% | 2006-01-27 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1071 | 40% | 2003-10-01 | Won |
| 1152 | 713 | 93% | 2003-05-13 | Won |
| 713 | 1152 | 7% | 2003-03-12 | Won |
| 1090 | 1117 | 46% | | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1100.1 vs 1058.1 has a 56.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).