The Good Shepherd
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 19
Attacker wins (Canadian): 8
Defender wins (German): 10
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Canadian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1144 | 951 | 75% | 2023-04-09 | Won |
| 1185 | 1075 | 65% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1131 | 916 | 78% | 2023-04-03 | Won |
| 1169 | 1028 | 69% | 2023-03-11 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1105 | 44% | 2023-03-10 | Lost |
| 1256 | 1123 | 68% | 2023-03-05 | Won |
| 973 | 741 | 79% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1135 | 40% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1036 | 52% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 1030 | 927 | 64% | 2017-03-27 | Won |
| 1333 | 1213 | 67% | 2011-06-07 | Won |
| 741 | 1065 | 13% | 2010-12-04 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1065 | 43% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 1093 | 1123 | 46% | 2006-05-07 | Lost |
| 1193 | 1136 | 58% | 2006-01-27 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1071 | 44% | 2003-10-01 | Won |
| 1152 | 713 | 93% | 2003-05-13 | Won |
| 713 | 1152 | 7% | 2003-03-12 | Won |
| 1089 | 1103 | 48% | | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1074.9 vs 1035.7 has a 55.63% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).