The Good Shepherd
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 19
Attacker wins (Canadian): 8
Defender wins (German): 10
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Canadian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1170 | 958 | 77% | 2023-04-09 | Won |
| 1185 | 1083 | 64% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1003 | 65% | 2023-04-03 | Won |
| 1198 | 1019 | 74% | 2023-03-11 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1178 | 35% | 2023-03-10 | Lost |
| 1253 | 1059 | 75% | 2023-03-05 | Won |
| 975 | 936 | 56% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1135 | 40% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1033 | 49% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 1029 | 882 | 70% | 2017-03-27 | Won |
| 1340 | 1213 | 68% | 2011-06-07 | Won |
| 936 | 1100 | 28% | 2010-12-04 | Lost |
| 1203 | 1067 | 69% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 1091 | 1059 | 55% | 2006-05-07 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1158 | 57% | 2006-01-27 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1071 | 44% | 2003-10-01 | Won |
| 1140 | 731 | 91% | 2003-05-13 | Won |
| 731 | 1140 | 9% | 2003-03-12 | Won |
| 1091 | 1118 | 46% | | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1097.8 vs 1049.6 has a 56.89% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).