The Hedgehog of Piepsk
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32
Attacker wins (Russian): 11
Defender wins (German): 20
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 982 | 1009 | 46% | 2024-06-28 | Won |
| 1185 | 1185 | 50% | 2023-10-23 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1182 | 55% | 2023-10-04 | Won |
| 1001 | 1001 | 50% | 2023-07-17 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1015 | 59% | 2023-05-22 | Won |
| 1024 | 963 | 59% | 2023-03-10 | Won |
| 950 | 1009 | 42% | 2022-12-15 | Won |
| 1194 | 1226 | 45% | 2021-12-30 | Won |
| 1040 | 941 | 64% | 2021-01-09 | Won |
| 1040 | 941 | 64% | 2021-01-09 | Won |
| 896 | 917 | 47% | 2020-12-01 | Won |
| 951 | 1194 | 20% | 2020-09-19 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1030 | 73% | 2020-07-21 | Lost |
| 920 | 1021 | 36% | 2020-06-29 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1226 | 22% | 2020-04-12 | Lost |
| 988 | 1194 | 23% | 2019-11-09 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1025 | 48% | 2019-04-24 | Lost |
| 958 | 1022 | 41% | 2019-02-11 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1001 | 52% | 2018-02-27 | Lost |
| 1028 | 971 | 58% | 2017-09-09 | Lost |
| 958 | 1018 | 41% | 2017-03-10 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1031 | 47% | 2015-05-19 | Won |
| 828 | 889 | 41% | 2014-10-19 | Lost |
| 1194 | 844 | 88% | 2013-08-26 | Lost |
| 965 | 971 | 49% | 2010-03-28 | Lost |
| 1083 | 997 | 62% | 2007-12-29 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1133 | 63% | 2007-04-19 | Lost |
| 943 | 832 | 65% | 2006-07-11 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1046 | 50% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1070 | 50% | 2000-06-05 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1068 | 50% | 2000-04-17 | Won |
| 1070 | 1068 | 50% | 2000-03-28 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1036 vs 1032.5 has a 50.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).