The Hedgehog of Piepsk
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32
Attacker wins (Russian): 11
Defender wins (German): 20
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 982 | 1009 | 46% | 2024-06-28 | Won |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2023-10-23 | Lost |
| 1242 | 1020 | 78% | 2023-10-04 | Won |
| 1001 | 1001 | 50% | 2023-07-17 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1033 | 57% | 2023-05-22 | Won |
| 1016 | 963 | 58% | 2023-03-10 | Won |
| 1209 | 1009 | 76% | 2022-12-15 | Won |
| 1181 | 1226 | 44% | 2021-12-30 | Won |
| 1053 | 914 | 69% | 2021-01-09 | Won |
| 1053 | 914 | 69% | 2021-01-09 | Won |
| 896 | 900 | 49% | 2020-12-01 | Won |
| 951 | 1181 | 21% | 2020-09-19 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1029 | 72% | 2020-07-21 | Lost |
| 920 | 1044 | 33% | 2020-06-29 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1226 | 22% | 2020-04-12 | Lost |
| 988 | 1181 | 25% | 2019-11-09 | Lost |
| 1022 | 764 | 82% | 2019-04-24 | Lost |
| 909 | 1023 | 34% | 2019-02-11 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1001 | 52% | 2018-02-27 | Lost |
| 1020 | 964 | 58% | 2017-09-09 | Lost |
| 909 | 1020 | 35% | 2017-03-10 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1010 | 53% | 2015-05-19 | Won |
| 831 | 873 | 44% | 2014-10-19 | Lost |
| 1181 | 844 | 87% | 2013-08-26 | Lost |
| 965 | 964 | 50% | 2010-03-28 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1041 | 50% | 2007-12-29 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1133 | 63% | 2007-04-19 | Lost |
| 943 | 832 | 65% | 2006-07-11 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1046 | 50% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1070 | 47% | 2000-06-05 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1050 | 53% | 2000-04-17 | Won |
| 1070 | 1050 | 53% | 2000-03-28 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1039.2 vs 1015.2 has a 53.45% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).