The Road to Lyon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 20
Attacker wins (German): 14
Defender wins (French): 4
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1192 | 967 | 79% | 2023-01-29 | Won |
| 970 | 1018 | 43% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1289 | 1064 | 79% | 2020-11-28 | Won |
| 1015 | 1037 | 47% | 2020-11-06 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2017-05-09 | Won |
| 851 | 986 | 31% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 851 | 986 | 31% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 1153 | 1062 | 63% | 2014-10-05 | Won |
| 1060 | 965 | 63% | 2012-10-26 | Won |
| 1118 | 694 | 92% | 2012-03-17 | Won |
| 694 | 1010 | 14% | 2012-03-16 | Won |
| 1011 | 1080 | 40% | 2010-04-01 | Won |
| 1117 | 1034 | 62% | 2007-04-10 | Won |
| 862 | 1100 | 20% | 2007-03-30 | Won |
| 1313 | 1182 | 68% | 2006-09-08 | Tied |
| 1285 | 1313 | 46% | 2006-06-22 | Tied |
| 1096 | 1100 | 49% | 2004-07-06 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1096 | 51% | 2004-06-30 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1152 | 30% | 2003-11-09 | Lost |
| 1152 | 900 | 81% | 2002-01-24 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1060.3 vs 1037.3 has a 53.3% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).