The Road to Lyon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 18
Attacker wins (German): 13
Defender wins (French): 3
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1257 | 994 | 82% | 2023-01-29 | Won |
| 952 | 1018 | 41% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1264 | 1063 | 76% | 2020-11-28 | Won |
| 1015 | 1015 | 50% | 2020-11-06 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1000 | 63% | 2017-05-09 | Won |
| 851 | 986 | 31% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 851 | 986 | 31% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 1163 | 995 | 72% | 2014-10-05 | Won |
| 1058 | 966 | 63% | 2012-10-26 | Won |
| 1140 | 697 | 93% | 2012-03-17 | Won |
| 697 | 1010 | 14% | 2012-03-16 | Won |
| 1010 | 1082 | 40% | 2010-04-01 | Won |
| 1111 | 1035 | 61% | 2007-04-10 | Won |
| 862 | 1100 | 20% | 2007-03-30 | Won |
| 1336 | 1100 | 80% | 2006-09-08 | Tied |
| 1285 | 1336 | 43% | 2006-06-22 | Tied |
| 1096 | 1098 | 50% | 2004-07-06 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 2004-06-30 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1063.1 vs 1032.1 has a 54.45% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).