Massacre au Paradis
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 147 (24 on the archive and 123 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 71
Defender wins (British): 75
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1115 | 1027 | 62% | 2025-01-26 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1003 | 52% | 2024-11-03 | Lost |
| 1020 | 981 | 56% | 2022-06-24 | Won |
| 1036 | 865 | 73% | 2021-03-12 | Won |
| 1020 | 1084 | 41% | 2020-05-08 | Won |
| 1043 | 1011 | 55% | 2020-01-13 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1014 | 49% | 2019-09-03 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1142 | 39% | 2019-09-03 | Lost |
| 1195 | 1013 | 74% | 2018-04-12 | Won |
| 865 | 1021 | 29% | 2015-01-01 | Won |
| 1043 | 865 | 74% | 2014-09-25 | Won |
| 1003 | 966 | 55% | 2014-06-23 | Lost |
| 1066 | 995 | 60% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1022 | 968 | 58% | 2010-03-31 | Lost |
| 1161 | 1142 | 53% | 2009-05-18 | Won |
| 1302 | 979 | 87% | 2008-06-11 | Won |
| 977 | 1405 | 8% | 2008-05-16 | Lost |
| 977 | 1302 | 13% | 2008-05-11 | Tied |
| 943 | 1099 | 29% | 2006-05-17 | Lost |
| 1009 | 936 | 60% | 2004-02-24 | Won |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 2002-03-20 | Lost |
| 934 | 986 | 43% | 2001-03-21 | Won |
| 984 | 829 | 71% | 2001-01-13 | Won |
| 1211 | 1042 | 73% | 1995-10-01 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1046.5 vs 1032.1 has a 52.07% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).