Massacre au Paradis
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 150 (27 on the archive and 123 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 73
Defender wins (British): 76
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2025-10-11 | Won |
| 1148 | 1027 | 67% | 2025-01-26 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1027 | 48% | 2024-11-03 | Lost |
| 1075 | 975 | 64% | 2022-06-24 | Won |
| 1020 | 947 | 60% | 2021-03-12 | Won |
| 1023 | 1023 | 50% | 2020-05-08 | Won |
| 997 | 989 | 51% | 2020-01-13 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1130 | 41% | 2019-09-03 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1014 | 49% | 2019-09-03 | Lost |
| 1198 | 1013 | 74% | 2018-04-12 | Won |
| 947 | 1021 | 40% | 2015-01-01 | Won |
| 997 | 947 | 57% | 2014-09-25 | Won |
| 1000 | 927 | 60% | 2014-06-23 | Lost |
| 1067 | 995 | 60% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1022 | 968 | 58% | 2010-03-31 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1121 | 51% | 2009-05-18 | Won |
| 1333 | 979 | 88% | 2008-06-11 | Won |
| 968 | 1416 | 7% | 2008-05-16 | Lost |
| 968 | 1333 | 11% | 2008-05-11 | Tied |
| 944 | 1099 | 29% | 2006-05-17 | Lost |
| 1009 | 928 | 61% | 2004-02-24 | Won |
| 900 | 1152 | 19% | 2002-09-06 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1095 | 51% | 2002-03-20 | Lost |
| 934 | 986 | 43% | 2001-03-21 | Won |
| 984 | 827 | 71% | 2001-01-13 | Won |
| 1152 | 713 | 93% | 2000-07-10 | Won |
| 1219 | 1028 | 75% | 1995-10-01 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1044.4 vs 1024.2 has a 52.9% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).