Winter of Their Discontent
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 22
Attacker wins (Russian): 6
Defender wins (Italian / German): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2024-02-18 | Won |
| 937 | 971 | 45% | 2022-08-23 | Lost |
| 1329 | 1096 | 79% | 2022-07-13 | Lost |
| 1010 | 935 | 61% | 2021-12-06 | Lost |
| 958 | 995 | 45% | 2021-06-25 | Lost |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2020-11-04 | Lost |
| 1071 | 932 | 69% | 2020-05-22 | Lost |
| 1158 | 764 | 91% | 2018-04-09 | Lost |
| 1329 | 1011 | 86% | 2016-09-24 | Won |
| 1181 | 1182 | 50% | 2015-08-28 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1242 | 22% | 2015-07-25 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1122 | 56% | 2014-05-29 | Lost |
| 1020 | 985 | 55% | 2013-01-09 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1413 | 15% | 2009-08-12 | Won |
| 1228 | 1133 | 63% | 2008-10-15 | Won |
| 1009 | 903 | 65% | 2008-04-04 | Won |
| 1181 | 1154 | 54% | 2008-03-14 | Won |
| 932 | 1243 | 14% | 2008-03-07 | Lost |
| 922 | 922 | 50% | 2007-10-30 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1099 | 45% | 2007-07-01 | Lost |
| 1107 | 996 | 65% | 2006-01-12 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1087 | 43% | 2005-12-31 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1079.5 vs 1059.2 has a 52.91% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).