A Dangerous Possibility
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (13 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 24
Defender wins (German): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2025-03-08 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1114 | 52% | 2018-04-24 | Won |
| 1088 | 1074 | 52% | 2016-03-16 | Won |
| 877 | 1060 | 26% | 2015-01-12 | Won |
| 1067 | 928 | 69% | 2013-03-23 | Won |
| 871 | 1100 | 21% | 2011-04-25 | Won |
| 1052 | 1009 | 56% | 2009-02-07 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1030 | 47% | 2009-01-13 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1152 | 60% | 2008-10-09 | Won |
| 985 | 1177 | 25% | 2008-05-15 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1097 | 38% | 2008-02-28 | Lost |
| 985 | 1154 | 27% | 2008-02-02 | Lost |
| 1161 | 1028 | 68% | 2008-01-01 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1040.1 vs 1075.9 has a 44.86% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).