A Dangerous Possibility
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (13 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 24
Defender wins (German): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1031 | 1031 | 50% | 2025-03-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2018-04-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2016-03-16 | | Won |
| 937 | 1146 | 23% | 2015-01-12 | | Won |
| 1071 | 1000 | 60% | 2013-03-23 | | Won |
| 870 | 1101 | 21% | 2011-04-25 | | Won |
| 1063 | 1000 | 59% | 2009-02-07 | | Lost |
| 1025 | 1000 | 54% | 2009-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2008-10-09 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1205 | 30% | 2008-05-15 | | Lost |
| 1013 | 1103 | 37% | 2008-02-28 | | Lost |
| 985 | 1181 | 24% | 2008-02-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1060 | 41% | 2008-01-01 | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1004.2 vs 1092.8 has a 37.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).