Farmyard Affray
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (20 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 25
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1047 | 43% | 2026-08-14 | | Lost |
| 1176 | 1058 | 66% | 2026-06-28 | | Won |
| 977 | 999 | 47% | 2026-06-28 | | Won |
| 987 | 960 | 54% | 2026-06-28 | | Won |
| 939 | 1161 | 22% | 2026-06-28 | | Lost |
| 991 | 1122 | 32% | 2025-11-10 | | Lost |
| 991 | 1122 | 32% | 2025-11-10 | | Lost |
| 987 | 1058 | 40% | 2025-06-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 991 | 51% | 2025-03-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1176 | 27% | 2024-11-14 | | Won |
| 999 | 1042 | 44% | 2024-11-14 | | Lost |
| 1098 | 977 | 67% | 2024-09-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2024-06-23 | | Won |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2022-10-01 | | Won |
| 939 | 1291 | 12% | 2018-08-20 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1134 | 52% | 2013-10-29 | | Won |
| 1023 | 1000 | 53% | 2012-05-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2009-03-11 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2008-10-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1022.7 vs 1060.4 has a 44.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).