Preliminary Move
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 42 (14 on the archive and 28 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 19
Defender wins (Russian): 23
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1072 | 692 | 90% | 2025-01-02 | | Won |
| 1172 | 1047 | 67% | 2020-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2020-01-11 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2019-05-12 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2018-07-04 | | Lost |
| 1245 | 1174 | 60% | 2018-04-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2018-04-02 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 970 | 72% | 2017-04-01 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1116 | 39% | 2016-08-30 | | Won |
| 1044 | 1000 | 56% | 2014-01-21 | | Won |
| 1090 | 927 | 72% | 2013-04-22 | | Won |
| 1071 | 1000 | 60% | 2013-03-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2012-02-14 | | Won |
| 1201 | 1031 | 73% | 2011-11-12 | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1097.1 vs 1016.1 has a 61.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).