Tropic Lightning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 97 (20 on the archive and 77 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 42
Defender wins (Japanese): 55
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1046 | 1046 | 50% | 2025-05-13 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1086 | 63% | 2025-02-21 | Won |
| 1078 | 1061 | 52% | 2024-09-09 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-03-10 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1271 | 49% | 2022-06-17 | Won |
| 1049 | 1015 | 55% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 998 | 1157 | 29% | 2020-12-28 | Lost |
| 1241 | 989 | 81% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1121 | 49% | 2020-04-10 | Won |
| 1080 | 1157 | 39% | 2018-11-29 | Lost |
| 986 | 1141 | 29% | 2017-11-16 | Lost |
| 869 | 1199 | 13% | 2017-09-06 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1141 | 48% | 2016-11-05 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1141 | 51% | 2014-04-07 | Won |
| 1058 | 976 | 62% | 2013-12-14 | Won |
| 976 | 1058 | 38% | 2013-07-16 | Lost |
| 963 | 925 | 55% | 2013-06-14 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1142 | 47% | 2013-01-19 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1066 | 55% | 2012-12-23 | Lost |
| 1041 | 864 | 73% | 2012-11-17 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1076.2 vs 1082.2 has a 49.14% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).