Tropic Lightning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (18 on the archive and 74 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 40
Defender wins (Japanese): 52
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1169 | 1055 | 66% | 2024-09-09 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-03-10 | Lost |
| 1260 | 1163 | 64% | 2022-06-17 | Won |
| 1049 | 1015 | 55% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1140 | 35% | 2020-12-28 | Lost |
| 1111 | 946 | 72% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1112 | 50% | 2020-04-10 | Won |
| 1084 | 1154 | 40% | 2018-11-29 | Lost |
| 986 | 1130 | 30% | 2017-11-16 | Lost |
| 861 | 1128 | 18% | 2017-09-06 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1130 | 50% | 2016-11-05 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1130 | 49% | 2014-04-07 | Won |
| 982 | 977 | 51% | 2013-12-14 | Won |
| 976 | 1056 | 39% | 2013-07-16 | Lost |
| 963 | 925 | 55% | 2013-06-14 | Lost |
| 1129 | 1129 | 50% | 2013-01-19 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1067 | 54% | 2012-12-23 | Lost |
| 1072 | 864 | 77% | 2012-11-17 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1068.1 vs 1067.2 has a 50.13% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).