Tropic Lightning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 99 (21 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 42
Defender wins (Japanese): 57
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1070 | 1070 | 50% | 2025-05-13 | Lost |
| 1177 | 1092 | 62% | 2025-02-21 | Won |
| 1105 | 1063 | 56% | 2024-09-09 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-03-10 | Lost |
| 1210 | 1094 | 66% | 2022-06-17 | Won |
| 1049 | 1015 | 55% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1044 | 65% | 2021-05-05 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1133 | 33% | 2020-12-28 | Lost |
| 1193 | 1006 | 75% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1111 | 50% | 2020-04-10 | Won |
| 1051 | 1157 | 35% | 2018-11-29 | Lost |
| 978 | 1151 | 27% | 2017-11-16 | Lost |
| 893 | 1203 | 14% | 2017-09-06 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1151 | 35% | 2016-11-05 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1151 | 45% | 2014-04-07 | Won |
| 1065 | 977 | 62% | 2013-12-14 | Won |
| 976 | 1057 | 39% | 2013-07-16 | Lost |
| 963 | 925 | 55% | 2013-06-14 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1121 | 51% | 2013-01-19 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1067 | 56% | 2012-12-23 | Lost |
| 1028 | 863 | 72% | 2012-11-17 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1072.4 vs 1073.3 has a 49.88% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).