Tropic Lightning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 94 (19 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 41
Defender wins (Japanese): 53
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1175 | 1086 | 63% | 2025-02-21 | Won |
| 1045 | 945 | 64% | 2024-09-09 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-03-10 | Lost |
| 1282 | 1173 | 65% | 2022-06-17 | Won |
| 1049 | 1015 | 55% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1157 | 30% | 2020-12-28 | Lost |
| 1223 | 969 | 81% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1092 | 53% | 2020-04-10 | Won |
| 1061 | 1157 | 37% | 2018-11-29 | Lost |
| 986 | 1137 | 30% | 2017-11-16 | Lost |
| 869 | 1219 | 12% | 2017-09-06 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1137 | 49% | 2016-11-05 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1137 | 52% | 2014-04-07 | Won |
| 1038 | 976 | 59% | 2013-12-14 | Won |
| 976 | 1058 | 38% | 2013-07-16 | Lost |
| 963 | 925 | 55% | 2013-06-14 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1142 | 49% | 2013-01-19 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1066 | 56% | 2012-12-23 | Lost |
| 1029 | 864 | 72% | 2012-11-17 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1075 vs 1070.7 has a 50.62% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).