Tropic Lightning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 100 (21 on the archive and 79 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 43
Defender wins (Japanese): 57
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1033 | 45% | 2025-05-13 | | Lost |
| 1163 | 1064 | 64% | 2025-02-21 | | Won |
| 1202 | 1000 | 76% | 2024-09-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2024-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2022-06-17 | | Won |
| 1049 | 1000 | 57% | 2022-01-15 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1048 | 63% | 2021-05-05 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1146 | 25% | 2020-12-28 | | Lost |
| 1152 | 1077 | 61% | 2020-10-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1119 | 34% | 2020-04-10 | | Won |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2018-11-29 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1136 | 29% | 2017-11-16 | | Lost |
| 992 | 1134 | 31% | 2017-09-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1136 | 31% | 2016-11-05 | | Lost |
| 1171 | 1136 | 55% | 2014-04-07 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2013-12-14 | | Won |
| 987 | 1060 | 40% | 2013-07-16 | | Lost |
| 963 | 1000 | 45% | 2013-06-14 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 1000 | 72% | 2013-01-19 | | Lost |
| 1140 | 1071 | 60% | 2012-12-23 | | Lost |
| 1059 | 864 | 75% | 2012-11-17 | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1068.9 vs 1053 has a 52.29% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).