Tropic Lightning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 99 (21 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 42
Defender wins (Japanese): 57
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1064 | 1045 | 53% | 2025-05-13 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1098 | 61% | 2025-02-21 | Won |
| 1107 | 1061 | 57% | 2024-09-09 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2024-03-10 | Lost |
| 1242 | 1095 | 70% | 2022-06-17 | Won |
| 1049 | 1015 | 55% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1066 | 62% | 2021-05-05 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1127 | 36% | 2020-12-28 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1006 | 74% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1110 | 51% | 2020-04-10 | Won |
| 1052 | 1157 | 35% | 2018-11-29 | Lost |
| 978 | 1163 | 26% | 2017-11-16 | Lost |
| 898 | 1181 | 16% | 2017-09-06 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2016-11-05 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1163 | 43% | 2014-04-07 | Won |
| 1060 | 977 | 62% | 2013-12-14 | Won |
| 976 | 1057 | 39% | 2013-07-16 | Lost |
| 963 | 925 | 55% | 2013-06-14 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1154 | 44% | 2013-01-19 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1067 | 56% | 2012-12-23 | Lost |
| 1036 | 863 | 73% | 2012-11-17 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1073.9 vs 1075.2 has a 49.81% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).