Tropic Lightning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 99 (21 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 42
Defender wins (Japanese): 57
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1219 | 1007 | 77% | 2025-05-13 | Lost |
| 1192 | 1072 | 67% | 2025-02-21 | Won |
| 1194 | 975 | 78% | 2024-09-09 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-03-10 | Lost |
| 1179 | 1030 | 70% | 2022-06-17 | Won |
| 1049 | 1015 | 55% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1048 | 63% | 2021-05-05 | Lost |
| 972 | 1139 | 28% | 2020-12-28 | Lost |
| 1201 | 1020 | 74% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1151 | 45% | 2020-04-10 | Won |
| 1045 | 1155 | 35% | 2018-11-29 | Lost |
| 977 | 1101 | 33% | 2017-11-16 | Lost |
| 975 | 1102 | 32% | 2017-09-06 | Lost |
| 935 | 1101 | 28% | 2016-11-05 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1101 | 58% | 2014-04-07 | Won |
| 1098 | 977 | 67% | 2013-12-14 | Won |
| 987 | 1059 | 40% | 2013-07-16 | Lost |
| 963 | 1040 | 39% | 2013-06-14 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1169 | 49% | 2013-01-19 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1071 | 58% | 2012-12-23 | Lost |
| 1045 | 864 | 74% | 2012-11-17 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1086.4 vs 1061.2 has a 53.63% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).