Initial Skirmish
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 67 (24 on the archive and 43 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 31
Defender wins (French): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1052 | 1052 | 50% | 2025-11-24 | Lost |
| 879 | 1032 | 29% | 2025-03-21 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1123 | 40% | 2025-01-23 | Lost |
| 1105 | 980 | 67% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 1072 | 983 | 63% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1157 | 1252 | 37% | 2024-07-02 | Lost |
| 780 | 983 | 24% | 2023-11-23 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1127 | 46% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1140 | 52% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1255 | 980 | 83% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 989 | 1037 | 43% | 2023-09-30 | Won |
| 879 | 1012 | 32% | 2023-03-24 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1024 | 68% | 2022-03-25 | Won |
| 980 | 1144 | 28% | 2021-10-24 | Won |
| 1012 | 1081 | 40% | 2021-01-30 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1075 | 46% | 2021-01-26 | Won |
| 1096 | 1175 | 39% | 2017-11-02 | Won |
| 1088 | 1096 | 49% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 993 | 1252 | 18% | 2016-12-27 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1217 | 23% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1079 | 1098 | 47% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1024 | 993 | 54% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1303 | 1024 | 83% | 2016-10-01 | Won |
| 1180 | 1127 | 58% | 2016-09-03 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1059.5 vs 1083.6 has a 46.54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).