Initial Skirmish
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 68 (24 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 32
Defender wins (French): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1117 | 1077 | 56% | 2026-05-28 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2025-11-24 | | Lost |
| 891 | 1009 | 34% | 2025-03-21 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2025-01-23 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 933 | 81% | 2024-11-14 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2024-11-14 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2024-07-02 | | Lost |
| 780 | 949 | 27% | 2023-11-23 | | Lost |
| 1136 | 1000 | 69% | 2023-11-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2023-11-05 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2023-09-30 | | Won |
| 891 | 995 | 35% | 2023-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1162 | 1033 | 68% | 2022-03-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2021-10-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1014 | 48% | 2021-01-30 | | Lost |
| 1059 | 1062 | 50% | 2021-01-26 | | Won |
| 1136 | 1154 | 47% | 2017-11-02 | | Won |
| 1089 | 1136 | 43% | 2017-11-01 | | Lost |
| 994 | 1219 | 21% | 2016-12-27 | | Lost |
| 1049 | 1218 | 27% | 2016-10-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1132 | 32% | 2016-10-06 | | Won |
| 1033 | 987 | 57% | 2016-10-06 | | Won |
| 1329 | 1033 | 85% | 2016-10-01 | | Won |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2016-09-03 | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1056.9 vs 1062.3 has a 49.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).