Initial Skirmish
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 69 (25 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 32
Defender wins (French): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 983 | 996 | 48% | 2026-05-28 | Won |
| 1041 | 1041 | 50% | 2025-11-24 | Lost |
| 891 | 1022 | 32% | 2025-03-21 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2025-01-23 | Lost |
| 1085 | 973 | 66% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1217 | 27% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1159 | 1251 | 37% | 2024-07-02 | Lost |
| 780 | 998 | 22% | 2023-11-23 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1128 | 47% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1140 | 45% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1039 | 73% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 989 | 1038 | 43% | 2023-09-30 | Won |
| 891 | 1011 | 33% | 2023-03-24 | Lost |
| 1162 | 969 | 75% | 2022-03-25 | Won |
| 1039 | 1131 | 37% | 2021-10-24 | Won |
| 1013 | 1007 | 51% | 2021-01-30 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1040 | 52% | 2021-01-26 | Won |
| 1108 | 1176 | 40% | 2017-11-02 | Won |
| 1089 | 1108 | 47% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 994 | 1251 | 19% | 2016-12-27 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1217 | 26% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1080 | 1129 | 43% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 969 | 986 | 48% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1313 | 969 | 88% | 2016-10-01 | Won |
| 1238 | 1121 | 66% | 2016-09-03 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1057.7 vs 1083.1 has a 46.35% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).