The Closer
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 97 (29 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 54
Defender wins (Canadian): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1188 | 1120 | 60% | 2026-06-06 | Won |
| 988 | 855 | 68% | 2025-05-08 | Won |
| 1150 | 1058 | 63% | 2024-09-22 | Won |
| 1179 | 1231 | 43% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 993 | 999 | 49% | 2024-04-06 | Won |
| 865 | 872 | 49% | 2023-01-03 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1420 | 14% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 1218 | 1039 | 74% | 2022-04-09 | Won |
| 1143 | 1028 | 66% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1030 | 66% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 924 | 861 | 59% | 2021-09-25 | Lost |
| 1021 | 995 | 54% | 2021-07-19 | Won |
| 1031 | 1231 | 24% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1078 | 947 | 68% | 2021-07-11 | Won |
| 1028 | 998 | 54% | 2021-06-19 | Lost |
| 998 | 1027 | 46% | 2021-06-09 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1143 | 34% | 2021-05-07 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1172 | 50% | 2021-04-26 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1099 | 47% | 2021-04-07 | Won |
| 953 | 1126 | 27% | 2020-09-14 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1087 | 42% | 2020-06-13 | Lost |
| 1263 | 953 | 86% | 2020-06-12 | Won |
| 1021 | 1042 | 47% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1203 | 1028 | 73% | 2019-12-16 | Won |
| 1084 | 1127 | 44% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 1028 | 986 | 56% | 2019-11-23 | Tied |
| 1140 | 1208 | 40% | 2019-10-11 | Lost |
| 1129 | 1051 | 61% | 2019-10-10 | Lost |
| 993 | 975 | 53% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1075.1 vs 1058.9 has a 52.33% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).