The Closer
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (26 on the archive and 66 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 50
Defender wins (Canadian): 41
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 976 | 970 | 51% | 2025-05-08 | Won |
| 1096 | 1329 | 21% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 1052 | 999 | 58% | 2024-04-06 | Won |
| 866 | 900 | 45% | 2023-01-03 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1062 | 55% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 1180 | 1027 | 71% | 2022-04-09 | Won |
| 1143 | 947 | 76% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1098 | 56% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 950 | 863 | 62% | 2021-09-25 | Lost |
| 1064 | 996 | 60% | 2021-07-19 | Won |
| 1015 | 1329 | 14% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1064 | 909 | 71% | 2021-07-11 | Won |
| 947 | 1044 | 36% | 2021-06-19 | Lost |
| 1044 | 996 | 57% | 2021-06-09 | Lost |
| 947 | 1143 | 24% | 2021-05-07 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1174 | 50% | 2021-04-26 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1102 | 50% | 2021-04-07 | Won |
| 1066 | 988 | 61% | 2020-09-14 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1014 | 52% | 2020-06-13 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1042 | 56% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1177 | 947 | 79% | 2019-12-16 | Won |
| 1105 | 1127 | 47% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 972 | 1014 | 44% | 2019-11-23 | Tied |
| 1152 | 1135 | 52% | 2019-10-11 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1019 | 56% | 2019-10-10 | Lost |
| 1052 | 973 | 61% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1059.9 vs 1044.1 has a 52.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).