The Closer
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 94 (26 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 51
Defender wins (Canadian): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 976 | 970 | 51% | 2025-05-08 | Won |
| 1096 | 1333 | 20% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1000 | 58% | 2024-04-06 | Won |
| 866 | 917 | 43% | 2023-01-03 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1064 | 56% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 1180 | 1027 | 71% | 2022-04-09 | Won |
| 1109 | 1171 | 41% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1112 | 50% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 926 | 863 | 59% | 2021-09-25 | Lost |
| 1112 | 996 | 66% | 2021-07-19 | Won |
| 1015 | 1333 | 14% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1063 | 974 | 63% | 2021-07-11 | Won |
| 1171 | 1044 | 68% | 2021-06-19 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1014 | 54% | 2021-06-09 | Lost |
| 1171 | 1109 | 59% | 2021-05-07 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1173 | 50% | 2021-04-26 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1102 | 46% | 2021-04-07 | Won |
| 1084 | 982 | 64% | 2020-09-14 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1014 | 52% | 2020-06-13 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1042 | 56% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1176 | 1171 | 51% | 2019-12-16 | Won |
| 1105 | 1123 | 47% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 1024 | 985 | 56% | 2019-11-23 | Tied |
| 1152 | 1133 | 53% | 2019-10-11 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1019 | 55% | 2019-10-10 | Lost |
| 1057 | 973 | 62% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1077.6 vs 1063.2 has a 52.07% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).