Road To Merdjayoun
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 11 (4 on the archive and 7 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Vichy): 7
Defender wins (British): 4
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1198 | 1218 | 47% | 2025-11-15 | Won |
| 954 | 1283 | 13% | 2025-04-02 | Lost |
| 1248 | 991 | 81% | 2023-09-14 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1001 | 52% | 2023-05-03 | Won |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1104.5 vs 1123.3 has a 47.3% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).