Buckley's Chance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 40 (9 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 21
Defender wins (Australian): 19
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 908 | 908 | 50% | 2025-04-26 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1159 | 30% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1010 | 935 | 61% | 2024-01-27 | Won |
| 982 | 1023 | 44% | 2024-01-07 | Won |
| 1052 | 1018 | 55% | 2023-12-02 | Lost |
| 979 | 879 | 64% | 2023-12-02 | Won |
| 1115 | 1042 | 60% | 2023-11-04 | Lost |
| 1155 | 1151 | 51% | 2023-09-07 | Won |
| 1158 | 1139 | 53% | 2023-08-20 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1041 vs 1028.2 has a 51.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).