The Hawk
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 106 (23 on the archive and 83 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 54
Defender wins (Japanese): 52
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 918 | 1051 | 32% | 2021-01-24 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1099 | 55% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-12-21 | Won |
| 937 | 1190 | 19% | 2018-03-06 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1100 | 42% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1100 | 38% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 937 | 1024 | 38% | 2016-12-20 | Won |
| 1071 | 994 | 61% | 2016-02-18 | Lost |
| 968 | 1037 | 40% | 2015-10-24 | Won |
| 1037 | 968 | 60% | 2015-10-17 | Won |
| 1228 | 870 | 89% | 2014-07-21 | Won |
| 1067 | 941 | 67% | 2013-01-19 | Won |
| 1067 | 941 | 67% | 2013-01-12 | Won |
| 941 | 1067 | 33% | 2012-12-27 | Won |
| 941 | 1067 | 33% | 2012-12-20 | Won |
| 1090 | 905 | 74% | 2009-06-25 | Won |
| 879 | 994 | 34% | 2005-04-13 | Won |
| 1048 | 1077 | 46% | 2003-12-18 | Won |
| 1120 | 1111 | 51% | 2002-07-26 | Won |
| 1100 | 1001 | 64% | 2000-12-29 | Won |
| 1048 | 1045 | 50% | 2000-05-24 | Lost |
| 1084 | 939 | 70% | 2000-05-05 | Won |
| 1102 | 1072 | 54% | 1988-01-01 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1037.6 vs 1029.6 has a 51.14% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).