The Hawk
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 112 (27 on the archive and 85 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 64
Defender wins (Japanese): 48
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 879 | 1002 | 33% | 2025-10-14 | Won |
| 981 | 1279 | 15% | 2025-09-18 | Won |
| 924 | 869 | 58% | 2024-12-17 | Lost |
| 986 | 1027 | 44% | 2024-12-01 | Lost |
| 906 | 1084 | 26% | 2021-01-24 | Lost |
| 1132 | 1117 | 52% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-12-21 | Won |
| 986 | 1113 | 32% | 2018-03-06 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1122 | 36% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1122 | 40% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 986 | 1016 | 46% | 2016-12-20 | Won |
| 1018 | 1053 | 45% | 2016-02-18 | Lost |
| 917 | 1072 | 29% | 2015-10-24 | Won |
| 1072 | 917 | 71% | 2015-10-17 | Won |
| 1228 | 870 | 89% | 2014-07-21 | Won |
| 1067 | 879 | 75% | 2013-01-19 | Won |
| 1067 | 879 | 75% | 2013-01-12 | Won |
| 879 | 1067 | 25% | 2012-12-27 | Won |
| 879 | 1067 | 25% | 2012-12-20 | Won |
| 1102 | 904 | 76% | 2009-06-25 | Won |
| 927 | 1053 | 33% | 2005-04-13 | Won |
| 1085 | 1074 | 52% | 2003-12-18 | Won |
| 1158 | 1194 | 45% | 2002-07-26 | Won |
| 1122 | 999 | 67% | 2000-12-29 | Won |
| 1085 | 1052 | 55% | 2000-05-24 | Lost |
| 1029 | 942 | 62% | 2000-05-05 | Won |
| 1103 | 1037 | 59% | 1988-01-01 | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1025.3 vs 1033.3 has a 48.85% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).