The Hawk
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 113 (28 on the archive and 85 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 64
Defender wins (Japanese): 49
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 841 | 999 | 29% | 2025-10-14 | | Won |
| 1156 | 1217 | 41% | 2025-09-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 869 | 68% | 2024-12-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1039 | 44% | 2024-12-01 | | Lost |
| 907 | 1077 | 27% | 2021-01-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2020-11-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2019-12-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1099 | 36% | 2018-03-06 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 1120 | 36% | 2017-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2017-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1005 | 49% | 2016-12-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1035 | 45% | 2016-02-18 | | Lost |
| 927 | 1080 | 29% | 2015-10-24 | | Won |
| 1080 | 927 | 71% | 2015-10-17 | | Won |
| 1233 | 870 | 89% | 2014-07-21 | | Won |
| 1071 | 841 | 79% | 2013-01-19 | | Won |
| 1071 | 841 | 79% | 2013-01-12 | | Won |
| 841 | 1071 | 21% | 2012-12-27 | | Won |
| 841 | 1071 | 21% | 2012-12-20 | | Won |
| 1103 | 904 | 76% | 2009-06-25 | | Won |
| 897 | 1035 | 31% | 2005-04-13 | | Won |
| 1344 | 1045 | 85% | 2004-04-24 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2003-12-18 | | Won |
| 1167 | 1125 | 56% | 2002-07-26 | | Won |
| 1120 | 1010 | 65% | 2000-12-29 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2000-05-24 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2000-05-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 1988-01-01 | | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1028.7 vs 1025.5 has a 50.46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).