The Hawk
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 113 (28 on the archive and 85 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 64
Defender wins (Japanese): 49
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 866 | 989 | 33% | 2025-10-14 | Won |
| 1017 | 1236 | 22% | 2025-09-18 | Won |
| 924 | 880 | 56% | 2024-12-17 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1039 | 47% | 2024-12-01 | Lost |
| 906 | 1066 | 28% | 2021-01-24 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1118 | 52% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-12-21 | Won |
| 1017 | 1131 | 34% | 2018-03-06 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1120 | 36% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1005 | 52% | 2016-12-20 | Won |
| 1018 | 1018 | 50% | 2016-02-18 | Lost |
| 946 | 1040 | 37% | 2015-10-24 | Won |
| 1040 | 946 | 63% | 2015-10-17 | Won |
| 1233 | 870 | 89% | 2014-07-21 | Won |
| 1071 | 866 | 76% | 2013-01-19 | Won |
| 1071 | 866 | 76% | 2013-01-12 | Won |
| 866 | 1071 | 24% | 2012-12-27 | Won |
| 866 | 1071 | 24% | 2012-12-20 | Won |
| 1102 | 904 | 76% | 2009-06-25 | Won |
| 910 | 1018 | 35% | 2005-04-13 | Won |
| 1343 | 1053 | 84% | 2004-04-24 | Lost |
| 998 | 1110 | 34% | 2003-12-18 | Won |
| 1145 | 1159 | 48% | 2002-07-26 | Won |
| 1120 | 1010 | 65% | 2000-12-29 | Won |
| 998 | 1087 | 37% | 2000-05-24 | Lost |
| 969 | 943 | 54% | 2000-05-05 | Won |
| 1105 | 1029 | 61% | 1988-01-01 | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1030.7 vs 1030.5 has a 50.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).