The Hawk
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 112 (27 on the archive and 85 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 64
Defender wins (Japanese): 48
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 889 | 1002 | 34% | 2025-10-14 | Won |
| 1013 | 1256 | 20% | 2025-09-18 | Won |
| 877 | 882 | 49% | 2024-12-17 | Lost |
| 1190 | 1027 | 72% | 2024-12-01 | Lost |
| 918 | 1099 | 26% | 2021-01-24 | Lost |
| 1132 | 1117 | 52% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-12-21 | Won |
| 1190 | 1109 | 61% | 2018-03-06 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1106 | 38% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1106 | 40% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1190 | 1016 | 73% | 2016-12-20 | Won |
| 1018 | 1056 | 45% | 2016-02-18 | Lost |
| 922 | 1050 | 32% | 2015-10-24 | Won |
| 1050 | 922 | 68% | 2015-10-17 | Won |
| 1228 | 870 | 89% | 2014-07-21 | Won |
| 1067 | 889 | 74% | 2013-01-19 | Won |
| 1067 | 889 | 74% | 2013-01-12 | Won |
| 889 | 1067 | 26% | 2012-12-27 | Won |
| 889 | 1067 | 26% | 2012-12-20 | Won |
| 1106 | 904 | 76% | 2009-06-25 | Won |
| 878 | 1056 | 26% | 2005-04-13 | Won |
| 1139 | 1078 | 59% | 2003-12-18 | Won |
| 1144 | 1156 | 48% | 2002-07-26 | Won |
| 1106 | 999 | 65% | 2000-12-29 | Won |
| 1139 | 1046 | 63% | 2000-05-24 | Lost |
| 1051 | 942 | 65% | 2000-05-05 | Won |
| 1117 | 1028 | 63% | 1988-01-01 | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1050.4 vs 1030.6 has a 52.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).