First Day of Diadem
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 83 (22 on the archive and 61 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 46
Defender wins (Free French): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1018 | 1024 | 49% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 1018 | 1024 | 49% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 1013 | 1058 | 44% | 2020-07-31 | Won |
| 944 | 1023 | 39% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 882 | 755 | 68% | 2020-06-27 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-03-09 | Won |
| 1013 | 805 | 77% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
| 1226 | 1086 | 69% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1060 | 693 | 89% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 907 | 1022 | 34% | 2010-06-16 | Won |
| 1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-04-26 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1293 | 18% | 2006-10-23 | Lost |
| 1236 | 1032 | 76% | 2006-06-14 | Won |
| 1048 | 1046 | 50% | 2006-06-02 | Won |
| 941 | 1037 | 37% | 2003-11-30 | Won |
| 1098 | 1122 | 47% | 1999-05-28 | Won |
| 1033 | 1002 | 54% | 1998-10-01 | Won |
| 1163 | 866 | 85% | 1995-12-12 | Won |
| 1187 | 953 | 79% | 1995-08-01 | Won |
| 1016 | 1187 | 27% | 1995-07-21 | Lost |
| 1116 | 830 | 84% | | Won |
| 1030 | 1116 | 38% | | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1046.7 vs 1002.4 has a 56.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).