First Day of Diadem
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 85 (24 on the archive and 61 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 48
Defender wins (Free French): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1065 | 979 | 62% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 1065 | 979 | 62% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 1160 | 919 | 80% | 2020-07-31 | Won |
| 955 | 1014 | 42% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 880 | 755 | 67% | 2020-06-27 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-03-09 | Won |
| 984 | 1099 | 34% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
| 1226 | 1106 | 67% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1040 | 694 | 88% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 987 | 1263 | 17% | 2011-01-13 | Won |
| 908 | 1022 | 34% | 2010-06-16 | Won |
| 1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-04-26 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1269 | 21% | 2006-10-23 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1035 | 69% | 2006-06-14 | Won |
| 1062 | 1043 | 53% | 2006-06-02 | Won |
| 947 | 1037 | 37% | 2003-11-30 | Won |
| 1263 | 976 | 84% | 2001-11-25 | Won |
| 994 | 967 | 54% | 1999-05-28 | Won |
| 1054 | 1003 | 57% | 1998-10-01 | Won |
| 1159 | 866 | 84% | 1995-12-12 | Won |
| 1189 | 953 | 80% | 1995-08-01 | Won |
| 1016 | 1189 | 27% | 1995-07-21 | Lost |
| 1036 | 833 | 76% | | Won |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | | Lost |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1052.5 vs 1004.8 has a 56.81% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).