First Day of Diadem
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 71 (15 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 39
Defender wins (Free French): 32
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
993 | 1026 | 45% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
993 | 1026 | 45% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
1017 | 1017 | 50% | 2020-07-31 | Won |
938 | 1026 | 38% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
980 | 1029 | 43% | 2020-03-09 | Won |
1041 | 983 | 58% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
1225 | 1074 | 70% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
1108 | 701 | 91% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
905 | 1022 | 34% | 2010-06-16 | Won |
1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-04-26 | Lost |
1030 | 1285 | 19% | 2006-10-23 | Lost |
925 | 1027 | 36% | 2006-06-14 | Won |
954 | 1037 | 38% | 2003-11-30 | Won |
1033 | 1083 | 43% | 1998-10-01 | Won |
1142 | 856 | 84% | 1995-12-12 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1023.1 vs 1016 has a 51.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).