First Day of Diadem
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 82 (21 on the archive and 61 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 45
Defender wins (Free French): 37
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1063 | 981 | 62% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 1063 | 981 | 62% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 973 | 1061 | 38% | 2020-07-31 | Won |
| 944 | 1022 | 39% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 835 | 789 | 57% | 2020-06-27 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-03-09 | Won |
| 994 | 1032 | 45% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
| 1223 | 1098 | 67% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1121 | 697 | 92% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 906 | 1022 | 34% | 2010-06-16 | Won |
| 1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-04-26 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1259 | 21% | 2006-10-23 | Lost |
| 1210 | 1029 | 74% | 2006-06-14 | Won |
| 944 | 1037 | 37% | 2003-11-30 | Won |
| 1050 | 1082 | 45% | 1999-05-28 | Won |
| 1033 | 1029 | 51% | 1998-10-01 | Won |
| 1133 | 856 | 83% | 1995-12-12 | Won |
| 1223 | 954 | 82% | 1995-08-01 | Won |
| 1016 | 1223 | 23% | 1995-07-21 | Lost |
| 1117 | 847 | 83% | | Won |
| 1029 | 1117 | 38% | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1045.2 vs 1009.3 has a 55.16% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).