Mercury Rising
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 61 (15 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 31
Defender wins (Greek / New Zealand): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1039 | 44% | 2023-11-03 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 1068 | 45% | 2023-04-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1150 | 30% | 2023-03-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1272 | 17% | 2023-03-23 | | Lost |
| 940 | 1033 | 37% | 2023-02-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2020-10-20 | | Lost |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2020-10-03 | | Won |
| 1116 | 839 | 83% | 2020-04-12 | | Won |
| 992 | 1134 | 31% | 2013-01-01 | | Lost |
| 960 | 951 | 51% | 2012-12-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1071 | 40% | 2012-09-20 | | Lost |
| 1023 | 1013 | 51% | 2011-04-09 | | Lost |
| 1052 | 1167 | 34% | 2008-12-30 | | Lost |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2008-03-30 | | Lost |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2008-01-26 | | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1010.3 vs 1051.1 has a 44.16% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).