Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 445 (23 on the archive and 422 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 223
Defender wins (American): 222
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1042 | 1042 | 50% | 2024-11-13 | Won |
| 1185 | 1185 | 50% | 2024-05-05 | Won |
| 993 | 953 | 56% | 2023-09-20 | Won |
| 1050 | 1021 | 54% | 2023-09-02 | Won |
| 1144 | 1173 | 46% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 931 | 936 | 49% | 2022-11-23 | Lost |
| 1017 | 987 | 54% | 2022-09-20 | Won |
| 971 | 892 | 61% | 2021-07-18 | Lost |
| 931 | 1010 | 39% | 2021-05-21 | Lost |
| 987 | 946 | 56% | 2020-12-29 | Won |
| 1220 | 946 | 83% | 2020-12-19 | Won |
| 985 | 956 | 54% | 2020-12-03 | Won |
| 1091 | 940 | 70% | 2020-11-07 | Won |
| 989 | 1050 | 41% | 2020-09-27 | Lost |
| 864 | 919 | 42% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 931 | 958 | 46% | 2020-03-03 | Won |
| 953 | 1242 | 16% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1117 | 51% | 2018-03-28 | Won |
| 1117 | 1123 | 49% | 2018-03-26 | Lost |
| 1058 | 968 | 63% | 2018-02-04 | Lost |
| 1217 | 892 | 87% | 2017-06-07 | Won |
| 1008 | 1226 | 22% | 2017-02-10 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1035 | 60% | 2016-09-21 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1039.7 vs 1022.5 has a 52.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).