Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 442 (21 on the archive and 421 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 225
Defender wins (American): 217
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1043 | 1043 | 50% | 2024-11-13 | Won |
| 1134 | 1125 | 51% | 2024-05-05 | Won |
| 947 | 937 | 51% | 2023-09-20 | Won |
| 1050 | 1021 | 54% | 2023-09-02 | Won |
| 1179 | 1172 | 51% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 930 | 965 | 45% | 2022-11-23 | Lost |
| 990 | 974 | 52% | 2022-09-20 | Won |
| 917 | 892 | 54% | 2021-07-18 | Lost |
| 930 | 1072 | 31% | 2021-05-21 | Lost |
| 986 | 972 | 52% | 2020-12-03 | Won |
| 1048 | 905 | 69% | 2020-11-07 | Won |
| 977 | 1031 | 42% | 2020-09-27 | Lost |
| 863 | 955 | 37% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 930 | 930 | 50% | 2020-03-03 | Won |
| 933 | 1259 | 13% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1111 | 52% | 2018-03-28 | Won |
| 1111 | 1128 | 48% | 2018-03-26 | Lost |
| 1058 | 968 | 63% | 2018-02-04 | Lost |
| 1214 | 890 | 87% | 2017-06-07 | Won |
| 1007 | 1223 | 22% | 2017-02-10 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1030 | 60% | 2016-09-21 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1022.6 vs 1028.7 has a 49.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).